A Change in the Wind

Is climate change impacting real estate in the Southwest?

In the United States today, according to the real estate site Zillow, the two cities in the most trouble are Phoenix, where a little more than half than half of all homeowners are underwater -- where debt outweighs the equity -- and Las Vegas, where an astounding 70% of homeowners are underwater. 

Is it a coincidence that these are the two biggest cities in the Southwest, where climate change is expected to hit brutally hard? Could climate change be contributing to this mega-downturn now?

Until someone goes out and starts doing some serious interviewing of folks in the real estate market, we're not going to know for sure, but we do have Tom Ashbrook's show on the subject from January, On Point: Can the Southwest Survive Climate Change? which was especially good. (To give an example of its quality, when an author of a book about the grim future of the Southwest claims he's not "in the prediction business," Ashbrook has a little fit, and forces him to answer.)

Ashbrook points out that we had record wildfires, record drought, and record temperatures in the Southwest last year He looks at two books, A Great Aridness: Climate Change and the future of the American Southwest, by William deBuys, and Bird on Fire: Lessons from the World's Least Sustainable City, and talks to the authors. 

William deBuys points out that the predictions for temperature change in the Southwest have been underestimates, and that this century Phoenix will get 4-6 degrees C hotter. Andrew Ross points out that the growth in Phoenix and the Southwest has been largely driven by growth itself: People making money on construction, buying their own homes, buidling more. Growth has stopped now, and -- as Ashbrook said -- developments have been all but abandoned. Ross doubts it will return, and points out that Phoenix in our times has yet to experience a mega-drought (of sixty years or more) which are shockingly common in the long-term record. Could the suburbanization of the desert be over? 

Included in the discussion s a notable figure in Phoenix, Grady Grammage, an attorney, developer, and believer in climate change, who sees high temps as the factor most likely to bring down his business. Yet Grammage insists that Phoenix is accustomed to planning for drought, that the region could support many millions of more people, and that growth will return. 

Grammage in my personal experience is a more thoughtful and reflective figure than one usually encounters in real estate, but even so his claims that Phoenix is "fine" fails to convince. 

"We call these places deserts for a reason," as Ashbrook said, "because they are often deserted." 

From on high, NASA looked at a related issue -- the urban heat island index in Phoenix -- and by cross-referencing satellite data with sociological data found that the rich were clustering in areas of vegetation and permeable soil (green), while the poor were shunted towards downtown Phoenix, with impermeable surfaces and buildings reflecting heat (blue). 

This week it reached 108 in Phoenix -- 12 degrees above average for May. 

The Last Myth: the problem with apocalyptic warnings

From a new book about the perils of apocalyptic thinking called The Last Myth.

To understand why fewer people believe in climate change even as evidence mounts, we must look beyond the industry-funded movement to deny the reality and effects of climate change. Perhaps equally important -- if not quite equally culpable -- has been the extent to which both the proponents and opponents of human-made climate change have led us down a cul-de-sac of conversation by exploiting the apocalyptic metaphor to make their case.

Whether by design or by accident, the initial warnings of environmentalists -- of oceans rising to engulf our most beloved metropolises, of amber waves of grain scorched into a desert landscape -- activated the apocalyptic impulse. The focus on disastrous repercussions for our behavior at some point in the future echoed the warnings of the Israelite priests to wayward Jews in Babylon or, later, to those who submitted too willingly to Alexander's process of Hellenization. It was a familiar story: change, and change radically, or face hell on earth. Perhaps there was no other way to sound the alarm about the devastating threat presented by global climate change, but that echo of apocalyptic warning was quickly seized upon by the naysayers to dismiss the evidence out of hand.

Actually, the tide of public belief has turned again in the US, towards belief. Based apparently mostly on direct observations of a hot spring in the East.   

Andrew Revkin: on climate change in a post-media world

Covered a talk by the dean of climate reporters, Andrew Revkin, last week at UCSB, for the Santa Barbara Independent. In part because he got so sick of "the yelling" around climate, a couple of years ago Revkin gave up traditional reporting to teach at Pace University, and to run the great Dot Earth blog on sustainability (and related questions, such as climate) for the New York Times.

This year, seemingly in a better mood, Revkin is promoting the concept of the Knowosphere, a portal for the exchange of ideas useful in getting us humans through "the bottleneck" that E.O. Wilson spoke of a decade ago. Revkin brought up the analogy of yeast bacteria in a sugar solution in a petri dish. They will multiply until they consume all the food, or until they foul their nest with waste, or both, and crash.

In his talk, Revkin pointed out that:

"Scientists for the last fifty years have been saying, "Hey, there's an edge to the petri dish!" Essentially the question is will we be able to find a "peak us" before nature imposes a limit on us." 

Revkin had some nifty examples of how Internet ideas have proved useful in facing problems; for instanct, a site for Pennsylvania residents called Fraktrack, that puts all public documents relating to hydraulic fracking on-line in a searchable form. He also thinks education -- which can teach the well-accepted fundamentals of climate science to young people -- offers hope.

But when it comes to "the yelling," in an answer to my question, Revkin put it with pithy vigor:

“In a post-media world, which is what we’re entering, it’s a great opportunity for institutions, or for individuals who understand these issues, to create a new space for scientific discussion,” he explained. “I think that’s the way forward.”

On the one hand, he's absolutely right about "the yelling." My little story led to immediate attacks on Revkin, inadvertently and ironically proving his point, and making me feel guilty for causing him pain.

On the other hand, I'm troubled by his blithe reference to a "post-media world."

Really? Do we not use the media and need the media today as much as we did twenty-five years ago?

To be specific, aren't we actually more dependent on The New York Times than ever?

The culture without the media. Talk about a post-apocalyptic landscape...

"I will not walk away from the promise of green energy": Obama

This year, despite the failure of the solar firm Solyndra, to which a half-billion dollars of Federal aid was guaranteed, President Obama reaffirmed his support of green energy. He said so in January, when the right was stirring on pot of this issue, reminding one and all of a lost $535 million. The Prez confronted the issue directly and appears to have put it to rest with his declaration that I will not walk away from the promise of green energy. (It doesn't hurt that green energy consistently polls well, from North Carolina to California and all across the country, by huge margins) 

Brings to mind this instant classic from Joel Pett. 

If only we had such problems! 

Winner of Ventura county climate action award: 2012

Yours truly doesn't often win awards -- it's been since college, actually -- so when I won an award for my climate reporting (cited was Drought-Proofing Ventura County) it's news worth posting here.  

I was up against fellow reporter and friend Zeke Barlow, who unfortunately for the county has taken a job in Virginia, and an professor. Here's a link to a picture (bottom right) of the winners: I'm standing (for the curious) on the lower far right, between two men, two supervisors, in dark suits.  

Here's the plaque. 

In sustainable bamboo. Yes, I'm happy to be called a hero for once. 

Condors vs. wind turbines: Wildlife vs. green energy

Here's my story on this fascinating topic from the Star on Sunday, which my editor liked and nicely smoothed out for the centerpiece of the front page. Always interesting, watching a good editor at work. 

Great pics, too, from personal fave Juan Carlo.

Drought-Proofing Ventura County

How a water district is trying to shelter 600,000 people in Ventura county from the potential for drought or disaster; how the first attempt went awry, and how the second one will work -- we hope. (Climate change is in the background of this story, but I didn't get into the projections -- no time.) 

Drought-Proofing Ventura County

And here's the architect of the $300 million plan, Calleguas' director Susan Mulligan.  

I was very impressed with Susan, her plan and her willingness to answer difficult questions. Doesn't take much to charm a reporter. Just answer his questions directly, really. 

The sound of climate change: Tom Toles

From the Washington Post's Tom Toles, of course:

The fun of ignoring climate change: Ted Rall

Ted Rall said he enjoyed drawing this 'toon. 

I think he deserves credit for putting together two impressive stats (even if I can't find the number for those Americans who don't think climate change is a problem, one-third of voters is in the ballpark). 

The least known proof of global warming: phenology

A month ago Heidi Cullen, the hardest working weatherperson around, penned a NY Times op-ed about the least known proof of global warming, phenology:

The climatologist Mark D. Schwartz at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and colleagues at the USA National Phenology Network have developed an index that can be used to estimate the date of the onset of the spring growing season (as opposed to the date in March when daylight and darkness are of equal length, the technical definition of the first day of spring, which falls on Tuesday). This “first leaf” index estimates the first day that leaves appear on plants. Here in the lower 48, spring now arrives approximately three days earlier. “First leaf” has gone from March 20 (1951-1980 average) to March 17 (1981-2010 average). This forward creep is consistent with the effects of an overall warming climate, roughly 1.4 degrees over the past century, what we refer to as global warming.

Winter 2012 will go down as the fourth warmest on record for the contiguous United States, according to the National Climatic Center. And so far, March will be remembered for the more than 2,200 warm temperature records that were set around the nation. The warm weather, with daytime high temperatures close to 40 degrees above average in some places (high temperature records are outpacing cold records by a ratio of about 19-to-1 so far this March), set the stage for severe thunderstorms that spawned rare, damaging tornadoes near Detroit. It used to be that a warm day in March felt like a gift, but now it feels as if we’re paying for it.

We're now up to 15,000 heat records broken around the country this spring. Still no mention of Midwestn heat wave at climate change denier central, Watts Up With That, even though according to NOAA the first three months of this year were the warmest on record.  

Scrolled through a search for all of March at the hackish Watts Up With That, and all I found was a mention of a mild winter nationally, sourced at NASA, and numerous posts about cold and snow in the Pacific Northwest. What's up with that, Anthony? 

Guess he must've overlooked the heating, somehow. Lost it in the couch.